Contents
Births and Migration of Children
Short-term International Migrant Populations
List of Figures
Figure 2: The London Borough of Havering
Figure 3: Green belt land, public parks and green spaces, Havering 2013
Figure 4: Population Density, Persons per hectare mid-2014, Havering wards
Figure 5: Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 quintiles, by Havering LSOAs
Figure 6: Havering, England and London Mid-2015 Population Pyramid
Figure 7: Trend in population size in Havering, 1983-2015
Figure 8: Components of Havering Population Change, from 2014 to 2015
Figure 11: Number of births to women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2015
Figure 12: Trend in general fertility rate of women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2015
Figure 13: Net flow of children by London Borough, 2010-2015
Figure 14: Projected population growth by age group (to nearest hundred), 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031
Figure 20: Projected proportion of Havering population by ethnicity
Figure 25: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by Census years
Figure 26: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by ward, 2011
Figure 27: Household* Mosaic Groups in Havering, 2016
Figure 28: Proportion of households by housing tenure, London Boroughs, 2015
Figure 34: Total Average Annual Household Income in London Boroughs, 2012/13
Figure 35: Car or van ownership amongst households across London boroughs, 2011
Figure 37: Income deprivation affecting Children, quintiles within Havering LSOA, 2015
List of Tables
Table 1: Estimated population of residents in Havering by gender and five-year age group
Table 2: Havering Components of Population Change, from 2014 to 2015
Table 3: Population change from 2014 to 2015, by Havering ward
Table 5: Projected percentage population change by age group since 2016, for 2021, 2026 and 2031
Table 6: Top 5 Household* Mosaic groups in Havering, 2016
Table 8: Count of Traveller Caravans in Havering, last five counts, January 2014 to January 2016
Document Version Control
| Version | Description |
| 1.0 | v Original document in 2015/16 financial year
v Published in September 2015 |
| 1.1 | v First quarterly update in 2015/16 financial year
v Published in December 2015 |
| 1.2 | v Second quarterly update in 2015/16 financial year
v Published in March 2016 |
| 2.1 | v First quarterly update in 2016/17 financial year
v Published in June 2016 |
| 2.2 | v Second quarterly update in 2016/17 financial year
v Published in September 2016 |
| 2.3 | v Third quarterly update in 2016/17 financial year
v Published in Decmber 2016 v Ward level population change from 2013 to 2014 updated to 2014 to 2015 v Projected proportion of Havering population by ethnicity updated with new data (GLA 2015 Round Trend-based ethnic group projections, long-term migration scenario) v Proportion of households by housing tenure, updated with 2015 data v Homeless households in temporary accommodation updated with the latest Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF) data. v Data on Statutory homelessness changed to reflect changed definition in line with National guidelines |
Executive Summary
SEND Needs Assessment 2016 – Executive Summary
Geographical Profile
- The London Borough of Havering is the 3rd largest borough in London (43 miles2) and contains 18 electoral wards.
- It is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the area dedicated to open green space, particularly to the east of the borough.
- The principal town (Romford) is densely populated and is an area of major metropolitan retail and night time entertainment.
- The southern part of Havering is within the London Riverside section of the Thames Gateway redevelopment area and will be an area of increasing development and population change.
- Havering is a relatively affluent local authority but there are pockets of deprivation to the north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and south (South Hornchurch) of the borough.
Population Profile
- The estimated population of the London Borough of Havering is 249,085.
- It has the oldest population in London with a median age of approximately 40 years old.
- The Borough experienced a net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 to 2002 but the population has increased year on year from 2002, with a 10.7% increase from 2002 to 2015.
- As well as increases in the number of births in Havering, there has been an increase in the general fertility rate from 58 (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) in 2004 to 67 in 2015. This equates to an additional 9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 within the period.
- From 2010 to 2015, Havering experienced the largest net inflow of children across all London boroughs. 4,536 children settled in the borough from another part of the United Kingdom during this six year period.
- It is projected that the largest increases in population will occur in children (0-17 years) and older people age groups (65 years and above) up to 2031.
- The life expectancy at birth for people living in Havering is 80.2 years for males and 83.9 years for females.
- The life expectancy at age 65 years in Havering is 19.0 years for males and 21.7 years for females.
- Havering is one of the most ethnically homogenous places in London, with 83% of its residents recorded as White British, higher than both London and England.
- About 90% of the borough population were born in the United Kingdom.
- It is projected that the Black African population will increase from 4.0% in 2016 to 5.2% of the Havering population in 2031.
- About 18% of working age people living in Havering disclosed that they have a disability or long term illness.
Household Profile
- There are 105,299 households in Havering, according to the Council Tax List (as at 31st August 2016).
- Households are mainly composed of pensioners and married couples with dependent children.
- All adults in 52% of households (40,722 households) are working and no adults are working in 16% of households (12,256 households).
- In 2011, there were 7,224 one-adult households with children under 16 in Havering. This is an increase from 2001 when there were 4,005 lone parent households. There has also been an increase in the number of one-adult households with no children.
- About 70% of the population in Havering are home owners. This is one of the highest proportions across London boroughs.
- Housing in the borough is mainly Victorian and Edwardian. Houses are generally large with an average of 2.8 bedrooms per household (higher than both London and England).
- The rate of homeless households in temporary accommodation (7 per 1,000 households) is lower than London (14.9 per 1,000) but higher than England (2.4 per 1,000).
- The rate of statutory homelessness (eligible people not in priority need) in Havering (1.4 per 1,000 households), in 2015/16, is higher than both London (1.2 per 1,000) and England (0.9 per 1,000).
- The borough has a rate of short-term international migrants of 131 per 100,000 population, the lowest of all London local authorities.
- About 78% of the traveller caravans in Havering were on unauthorised sites, as at January 2016.
- 32% (13,449) of the population aged 65 years and above are living in one-person households. Almost half (48%) of all one person households in Havering are occupied by persons aged 65 years and over, which is the highest proportion in London
Economic Profile
- The average gross income per household in Havering (£44,430, as measured in 2012/13) is low in comparison to the London average (£51,770) and slightly higher than the England average (£39,557).
- 77% of households in Havering have at least one car and compared to other local authorities in London, Havering has the second highest proportion of households (32.8%) with 2 or more cars.
- Majority of children in Havering are not poor, but around 8,800 live in income-deprived households. Gooshays and Heaton wards have the highest proportion of children living in poverty.
- About 76.5% of working age residents in Havering were in employment between January 20145-December 2015. Overall employment rate in Havering is higher than London (72.9%) and England (73.6%)
- The proportion of working age residents in Havering claiming out-of-work benefits (7.3%) is significantly lower than England (9.0%).
Background
This product forms part of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA). The JSNA is a systematic method for reviewing the issues facing a population, leading to agreed priorities and resource allocation that will improve health and wellbeing of the population and reduce inequalities within the population.
This document provides a snapshot of key geographic, demographic and socio-economic facts and figures for the London Borough of Havering[1], with the intention that this will be the “one version of the truth” or reference document for all local stakeholders.
These facts and figures have been provided in a quick and accessible way[2] and with good visualisation of data, where appropriate. In addition, this document provides how Havering values compare to national (England), regional (London) and peer group[3] values. The choice of comparators for individual values or indicators is based on a number of factors including appropriateness and data availability.
A summary of what is covered in this document, which is updated quarterly[4], is presented in Figure 1.
Geographical Profile
Geographical Location
Havering is the third largest London borough, covering some 43 square miles. It is located on the northeast boundary of Greater London. The location of Havering in the context of Greater London is presented in Figure 2.
Havering is bordered to the north and east by the Essex countryside, to the south by a three mile River Thames frontage, and to the west by the neighbouring London boroughs of Redbridge and Barking & Dagenham. Havering has 18 electoral wards (see Figure 2). Residents’ postcodes mainly fall into the Romford postal area (RM1 to RM7 and RM11 to RM14) but a small number fall into the Chelmsford postal area (CM12 and CM13).
Figure 2: The London Borough of Havering
Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Havering as a Place
Havering is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the area dedicated to open green space, particularly to the east of the borough where strict Green Belt restrictions have prohibited the extension of existing developments (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Green belt land, public parks and green spaces, Havering 2013
Data Source: Local Land and Property Gazetteer (LLPG); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
On the other hand, its principal town (Romford), is densely populated (see Figure 4), and is a major metropolitan retail and night time entertainment centre. The southern part of Havering adjacent to the Thames is within the London Riverside section of the Thames Gateway redevelopment area. This will therefore be a site of increasing development and population change.
Figure 4: Population Density, Persons per hectare mid-2014, Havering wards
Data Source: United Kingdom Standard Area of Measurements and Ward Mid-year population Estimates 2014; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Deprivation
People who live in the most deprived areas have the poorest health and well-being outcomes. On average people living in deprived areas, lower socio-economic groups and marginalised groups have poorer health and poorer access to health care than people resident in affluent areas and people from higher socio-economic groups.
Havering is a relatively affluent borough. Based on IMD (Index of Multiple Deprivation) 2015[5], Havering is ranked 166th overall out of 326 local authorities in England for deprivation (1st being most deprived, 326th being least deprived). Although this suggests a relative slight increase in deprivation compared to the IMD 2010[6] ranking (177th out of 326 local authorities), Havering remains within the third deprivation quintile[7] when compared to all local authorities.
However, there are pockets of deprivation to the north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and south (South Hornchurch ward) of the borough. Figure 5 displays two maps of Havering: on the left, deprivation quintile score of Havering Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs)[8] relative to Havering and on the right, deprivation quintile score of Havering LSOAs relative to England. Both are displayed in order to respectively identify areas more deprived compared to other local and national LSOAs.
Figure 5: Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 quintiles, by Havering LSOAs
Data source: Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015; Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Population Profile
According to the 2015 Mid-Year Estimates of Population, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 23 June 2016, the population of Havering is 249,085. These include people usually resident[9] in Havering (including students at their term time address and long-term migrants[10]).
Havering’s Age Profile
Havering has the oldest population in London with a median age of 40 years, as recorded in the 2011 census. Table 1 shows the breakdown of current (mid-2015) population by gender and five-year age bands and the population pyramid in Figure 6 compares the population figures for Havering with London and England by five-year age bands. Figure 6 shows a much older age structure for the population of Havering compared to London but similar to England.
Table 1: Estimated population of residents in Havering by gender and five-year age group
|
AGE BAND (YEARS) |
MALE | FEMALE | PERSONS |
| 0-4 | 8,273 | 7,893 | 16,166 |
| 5-9 | 7,720 | 7,450 | 15,170 |
| 10-14 | 7,021 | 6,863 | 13,884 |
| 15-19 | 7,485 | 7,244 | 14,729 |
| 20-24 | 7,616 | 7,414 | 15,030 |
| 25-29 | 8,119 | 8,877 | 16,996 |
| 30-34 | 7,974 | 8,734 | 16,708 |
| 35-39 | 7,504 | 8,247 | 15,751 |
| 40-44 | 7,554 | 8,040 | 15,594 |
| 45-49 | 8,297 | 9,108 | 17,405 |
| 50-54 | 8,423 | 9,094 | 17,517 |
| 55-59 | 7,779 | 7,647 | 15,426 |
| 60-64 | 6,248 | 6,602 | 12,850 |
| 65-69 | 6,423 | 7,049 | 13,472 |
| 70-74 | 4,460 | 5,377 | 9,837 |
| 75-79 | 3,654 | 4,892 | 8,546 |
| 80-84 | 2,791 | 4,209 | 7,000 |
| 85-89 | 1,608 | 2,946 | 4,554 |
| 90+ | 687 | 1,763 | 2,450 |
| All Ages | 119,636 | 129,449 | 249,085 |
Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS);
Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 6: Havering, England and London Mid-2015 Population Pyramid
Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2015, Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Annual Population Change
Following a net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 (240,200) to 2002 (225,100), the population of Havering has increased year on year from 2002, with a 10.7% increase from 2002 to 2015 (see Figure 7).
The population of Havering has been estimated to increase, from 2014 to 2015, by 3,111 residents (a percentage increase of about 1.3%). This increase is mainly due to internal migration[11] – that is, migration from other local authorities (1,710, 0.7%). Natural change (births minus deaths) contributed 0.3% and international migration accounted for the remaining 0.2% of the population increase from mid-2014 to mid-2015. See Figure 8 and Table 2 for more details.
Figure 7: Trend in population size in Havering, 1983-2015
Data source: Mid-year population estimates 1983-2015 (nearest hundreds); Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 8: Components of Havering Population Change, from 2014 to 2015
Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2015 Analysis Tool; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Table 2: Havering Components of Population Change, from 2014 to 2015
| NUMBER | PERCENTAGE | |
| Estimated Population mid-2014 | 245,974 | |
| Estimated Population mid-2015 | 249,085 | |
| Overall Population Change | 3,111 | 1.3% |
| due to Births and Deaths | 785 | 0.3% |
| due to Internal Migration | 1,710 | 0.7% |
| due to International Migration | 604 | 0.2% |
| due to Other Adjustments | 12 | 0.0% |
Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2015 Analysis Tool; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Ward Level Change
Population change by ward from 2014 to 2015 is presented in Table 3. Cranham, Emerson Park, St Andrew’s, Pettits and Hacton saw a small decline in population whereas all other wards experienced an increase. Heaton, Brooklands, Harold Wood, South Hornchurch and Gooshays experienced the highest percentage increase in population.
Table 3: Population change from 2014 to 2015, by Havering ward
Data source: Ward-level Mid-year population estimates 2014 and Ward-level Mid-year population estimates 2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Age and Population Change
Figure 9 presents the population change in Havering from mid-2014 to mid-2015 by component and age. Figure 10 presents the net change in population due to migration from mid-2014 to mid-2015 in Havering by five-year age group.
Inclusive of ‘natural change’ (i.e. births and deaths), children aged 0-4 years are the largest contributors to population change, largely due to births. 2014 saw a net increase in young adults (20-49 years) largely due to internal migration and a net decrease in adults aged 50 years and over largely due to deaths.
Figure 9: Population change in Havering, from mid-2014 to mid-2015 by component and five-year age-group
Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2014 Analysis Tool; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 10: Net population change due to migration in Havering, from mid-2014 to mid-2015 five-year age-group
Data source: Mid-year population estimates 2015 Analysis Tool; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Births and Migration of Children
As the population of Havering grows, there has been a corresponding change in the number of births to women resident in Havering (see Figure 11).
As well as increases in the number of births in Havering, there has been an increase in the general fertility rate (GFR)[12] from 58 (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) in 2004 to 67 in 2015. This equates to an additional 9 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 within the period. The annual GFR for Havering (compared to England, London, Outer London, and Havering’s closest statistical neighbour – Bexley) is presented in Figure 12.
Figure 11: Number of births to women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2015
Data source: Birth Summary Tables 2004-2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 12: Trend in general fertility rate of women residents in Havering, 2004 to 2015
Data source: Live Births, General Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates 2004-2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
In addition, Havering has experienced the largest net inflow of children across all London boroughs in recent years. In a six year period (from 2010 to 2015), 4,536 children have settled in the borough from another part of the United Kingdom (see Figure 13). Figure 13 also illustrates that there is migration of children out of Inner London Boroughs, which have experienced a negative net flow, into Outer London Boroughs. However, the biggest inflows of children into Havering for 2015 came from neighbouring Outer London Boroughs, Barking & Dagenham (619 children) and Redbridge (419 children).[13]
Figure 13: Net flow of children by London Borough, 2010-2015
Data source: Internal Migration Flows 2010-2015; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Projected Population Change
According to the Greater London Authority (GLA) Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment-based (SHLAA) population projection tool[14], the population of Havering is projected to increase from 251, 618 in 2016 to:
- 265,439 in 2021 – a 6% increase from 2016
- 278,127 in 2026 – a 10% increase from 2016
- 282,999 in 2031 – a 11% increase from 2016
The populations in South Hornchurch, Romford Town, and Brooklands wards are expected to increase the most over the next fifteen years. Table 4 shows the projected population and projected percentage population change in Havering at ward level for the next 5, 10 and 15 years.
Table 4: Projected population for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 and projected percentage population change from 2016 to 2020, 2026 and 2031, by Havering wards
Data source: 2015 Round Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA)-Based Projections; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
In addition, the population aged 25-64 will remain the largest age group up to 2031. Figure 14 and Table 5 present change in population by age group for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031.
Figure 14: Projected population growth by age group (to nearest hundred), 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031
Data source: 2015 Round Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA)-Based Projections; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Table 5: Projected percentage population change by age group since 2016, for 2021, 2026 and 2031
Data source: 2015 Round Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA)-Based Projections; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Life Expectancy
The life expectancy[15] for people living in Havering is 80.2 years (for males) and 83.9 years (for females) from birth. Life expectancy in Havering has been mostly higher than the England average and has been on the increase over the last decade (see Figure 15). The life expectancy for females is significantly higher than males.
Figure 15: Life expectancy at birth (years), by gender, Havering compared to London and England, 3-year rolling periods, 2001-03 to 2012-14
Data source: Life expectancy at birth, 2001-2003 to 2012-2014; Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Within Havering, there are inequalities in life expectancy at birth by local deprivation decile[16] (see Figure 16). The most deprived deciles of the population have significantly shorter life expectancies than the Havering average.
- For males, life expectancy at birth ranges from 76.6 years in the most deprived decile to 84.5 years in the least deprived decile (difference of 7.9 years). This is greater than the gap seen across London (difference of 6.7 years).
- For females, life expectancy at birth ranges from 81.1 years in the most deprived decile to 86.6 years in the least deprived decile (difference of 5.5 years). This is greater than the gap seen across London (difference of 4.4 years).
Figure 16: Life expectancy at birth by local deprivation decile with Havering average, by gender, 2012-14
Data source: Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF – 0.1ii. Life expectancy at birth); Public Health England (PHE); Produced by Public Health Intelligence. Published on February 2016
The life expectancy at age 65 for males in Havering is 19.0 years.
- This is similar to the life expectancy for males in London (19.2 years) and England (18.8 years).
- Over a twelve-year period (of 3-year rolling periods – from 2001-03 to 2012-14), the life expectancy at age 65 for males in Havering has increased significantly from 16.3 years to 19.0 years – a 17% increase (see Figure 17).
The life expectancy at age 65 for females in Havering is 21.7 years, 2.7 years longer than for males.
- This is similar to the life expectancy for London (21.9 years) but statistically significantly higher than England female average (21.2 years).
- Over a twelve-year period (of 3-year rolling periods – from 2001-03 to 2012-14), the life expectancy, at age 65, for females in Havering has increased significantly from 19.0 years to 21.7 years – a 14% increase (see Figure 17).
Figure 17: Life expectancy at age 65 (years), by gender, Havering compared to London and England, 3-year rolling periods, 2001-03 to 2012-14
Data source: Life Expectancy at 65, 2001-2003 to 2012-2014; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Ethnicity
Havering is one of the most ethnically homogenous places in London, with 83% of its residents recorded as White British in the 2011 census, higher than both London and England (see Figure 18).
Figure 18: Havering 2011 Census Population, broken down by proportion of White British and BAME (Black and Minority Ethnic) groups
Data source: Census 2011; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 19 presents the distribution of non-white population[17] across Havering wards.
Brooklands, Emerson Park, Romford Town and South Hornchurch are the wards with the highest proportion of non-white categories.
Figure 19: Percentage of people stating their ethnicity as not White (all non-White categories) in Havering, by wards
Data source: Census 2011; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
The GLA produce estimates of population change by ethnicity. The projections from the 2015 Long-term migration based tool are presented in Figure 20. The white[18] population is projected to decrease from 84% (in 2016) to 78% (in 2031) of the population. It is projected that the Black African population will increase from 4.0% in 2016 to 5.2% of the Havering population in 2031.
Figure 20: Projected proportion of Havering population by ethnicity
Data source: GLA 2015 Round Trend-based ethnic group projections, long-term migration scenario
; Greater London Authority (GLA); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
On the day of Census 2011, 90% of the residents in Havering were born in the United Kingdom (UK). A breakdown of the minority proportion of Havering residents born out of the UK (10% of Havering residents) is presented in Figure 21. It suggests that most of the residents born outside of the UK were born in Ireland, Nigeria, India and Eastern Europe.
Figure 21: Count and proportion of UK born and non-UK born Havering residents, and breakdown of non-UK born Havering residents (count and rate per 10,000 of Havering population) by country of birth (plus relative size by world region), 2011
Data source: Census 2011; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
People with Disabilities
According to the latest ONS Annual Population Survey (Jan 2014-Dec 2014), 18% of working age[19] people living in Havering have disclosed that they have a disability or long term illness. This is a similar proportion to England (19%).
The estimated number of people in Havering aged 18-64 living with moderate physical disabilities[20] was 11,592 in 2015 – a rate of 7,779 per 100,000 population aged 18-64 years. This rate is one of the highest among London local authorities. It is statistically similar to England but significantly higher than the London average (see Figure 22).
Figure 22: Estimated moderate physical disability rate per 100,000, persons aged 18-64 years, in Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2015
Note: Rate per 100,000 calculation uses mid 2015 population estimates; Data Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System (PANSI, 2015) and Mid-year population estimates 2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Furthermore, 3,380 adults (aged 18-64 years) were estimated to be living with serious physical disabilities[21] in Havering in 2015. The estimated rate of serious physical disabilities in Havering (2,297 per 100,000 population aged 18-64 years) is similar to England but significantly higher than London average and one of the highest rates of London local authorities (see Figure 23).
Figure 23: Estimated serious physical disability rate per 100,000, persons aged 18-64 years, in Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2015
Note: Rate per 100,000 calculation uses mid 2015 population estimates
Data Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System (PANSI, 2015) and Mid-year population estimates 2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
About 817 adults (aged 18-64 years) are estimated to be living with moderate or severe learning disabilities[22] in Havering in 2015 and hence likely to be in receipt of health and social care services.
The 2015 estimated rate of moderate or severe learning disabilities in Havering (548 per 100,000 persons aged 18-64 years) is similar to London and England. Havering is estimated to have the 3rd lowest rate of moderate or severe learning disabilities among London local authorities (see Figure 24).
Figure 24: Estimated moderate or severe learning disabilities rate per 100,000 persons aged 18-64 years, in Havering and other London boroughs, London and England, 2015
Note: Rate per 100,000 calculations use mid 2015 population estimates
Data Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System (PANSI, 2015) and Mid-year population estimates 2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Household Profile
According to the 2011 census, there were a total of 97,200 households with at least one usual resident[23] in Havering but the Council Tax List (as at 31st August 2016) suggests that there are 105,299 households. Households in Havering are mainly composed of pensioners and married couples with dependent children. On the census 2011 day, there were 40,722 (52%) households in Havering where all adults are working and 16% (12,256) of households where no adults are working.
Household Size
Household composition data provides useful information about the domestic circumstances of people living in Havering. Figure 25, which compares the 2011 Census household data with previous three censuses, illustrates how households and family structures have changed in Havering since 1981. Figure 25 shows that, in 2011, there were 7,224 one-adult households with children under 16 in Havering. This is an increase from 2001 when there were 4,005 lone parent households. There has also been an increase in the number of one-adult households with no children. A breakdown of household size in Havering by ward is presented in Figure 26.
Figure 25: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by Census years
Data source: For 1981,1991,and 2001 – Historic Census Tables by Census Information Scheme, Greater London Authority, adapted from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) under the Open Government Licence; For 2011 – Adapted from Census 2011[24], ONS; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 26: Distribution of household compositions in Havering by ward, 2011
Data source: Adapted from Census 2011[25], Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Mosaic Groups
Mosaic is a product built by Experian to help understand what types of people live in the UK. Figure 27 presents the most common Mosaic Groups in Havering – the size of the bubbles indicates the percentage of the resident population in Havering that falls within each group. The top five groups (see Table 6) account for 65% of the households in the borough.
Figure 27: Household* Mosaic Groups in Havering, 2016
* The Household Mosaic Group has been used for the vast majority of all households. However, in a minority of cases (268 out of 103,470), where there was no designated Household Mosaic Group, the Postcode Mosaic Group was used.
Data Source: Experian’s Mosaic Public Sector 2016; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Table 6: Top 5 Household* Mosaic groups in Havering, 2016
| Group – Name | Typical Profile Picture | One Line Description | Key Features |
| F – Senior Security | Elderly people with assets who are enjoying a comfortable retirement | · Elderly singles and couples
· Homeowners · Comfortable homes · Additional pensions above state · Don’t like new technology · Low mileage drivers |
|
| E – Suburban Stability | Mature suburban owners living settled lives in mid-range housing | · Older families
· Some adult children at home · Suburban mid-range homes · 3 bedrooms · Have lived at same address some years · Research on Internet |
|
| H – Aspiring Homemakers | Younger households settling down in housing priced within their means | · Younger households
· Full-time employment · Private suburbs · Affordable housing costs · Starter salaries · Buy and sell on eBay |
|
| D – Domestic Success | Thriving families who are busy bringing up children and following careers | · Families with children
· Upmarket suburban homes · Owned with a mortgage · 3 or 4 bedrooms · High Internet use · Own new technology |
|
| J – Rental Hubs | Educated young people privately renting in urban neighbourhoods | · Aged 18-35
· Private renting · Singles and sharers · Urban locations · Young neighbourhoods · High use of smartphones |
* The Household Mosaic Group has been used for the vast majority of all households. However, in a minority of cases (268 out of 103,470), where there was no designated Household Mosaic Group, the Postcode Mosaic Group was used.
Data Source: Experian’s Mosaic Public Sector 2016; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Housing Tenure
Housing tenure refers to the financial arrangements under which someone has the right to live in a house or apartment.
The 2015 Annual Population Survey suggested that about 73% of the population in Havering a home owners (those who own outright and those who bought with a mortgage). This is one of the highest proportions across London boroughs and higher than London (50%) and England (65%). A comparison of housing tenure across London is provided in Figure 28.
Figure 28: Proportion of households by housing tenure, London Boroughs, 2015
Data source: Annual Population Survey 2015; Office for National Statistics (ONS) via Greater London Authority published 7th Dec 2016. Labels may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding. Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Housing Conditions
Housing in Havering is mainly Victorian and Edwardian. According to the last census (2011), 98% of Havering households had central heating. This is higher than London (97.2%) and England (97.3%). Houses in Havering have an average of 2.8 bedrooms per household. This is higher than London (2.5%) and England (2.7%).
Homelessness
The rate of homeless households in temporary accommodation[26] (7 per 1,000 households) is lower than London (14.9 per 1,000) but higher than England (3.4 per 1,000). It falls in the highest quartile when compared to other authorities in the 5th less deprived decile (see Figure 29).
Figure 29: Homeless households in temporary accommodation in Havering, Havering’s deprivation decile, London and England, crude rate per 1,000 households, 2015-16
Data source: Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF – 1.15ii.Households in temporary Accommodation); Public Health England (PHE); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
The rate of statutory homelessness (eligible homeless people not in priority need) households[27] in Havering (1.4 per 1,000 households), in 2014/15, is similar to London (1.2 per 1,000) and significantly higher than England (0.9 per 1,000). I falls in the highest quartile[28] when compared to local authorities in the same deprivation decile (see Figure 30).
Figure 30: Statutory homelessness in Havering, Havering’s deprivation decile, London and England, crude rate per 1,000 estimated total households, 2015-16
Data source: Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF – 1.15i. Eligible homeless people not in priority need per 1,000 households); Public Health England (PHE); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Short-term International Migrant Populations
Short-term international migrants are defined as those persons from another country who stay longer than a month and shorter than a year for reasons other than leisure, business, pilgrimage or treatment. On average, 201 short-term international migrants arrive in Havering every year (see Table 7).
The most recent rate of short-term international migrants in Havering (131 per 100,000) is significantly lower than the rate for London (695 per 100,000 population) and England (294 per 100,000 population). It is also the lowest of all London local authorities (see Figure 31) and it is the sixth lowest when compared to Havering’s statistical neighbours (see Figure 32).
Table 7: Short-term international migration into Havering, migrants satisfying United Nations definition of a short-term migrant, estimates from the International Passenger Survey, mid-2010 to mid-2014
| Mid-Year | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
5-year average |
| Estimate |
190 |
124 | 180 | 187 | 322 | 201 |
Data Source: Short-Term International Migration Annual Report – Year ending mid-2014 estimates; Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Figure 31: Rate of international short-term migrants per 100,000 population in 2014, Havering, other London boroughs, London and England
Note: Short-term migration is classified here as a stay longer than a month and shorter than a year for reasons other than leisure/business/pilgrimage or treatment
Data Source: Short-Term International Migration Annual Report – Year ending mid-2014 estimates; Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Figure 32: Rate of international short-term migrants per 100,000 population in 2014, Havering, Havering’s statistical neighbours, London and England
Note: Short-term migration is classified here as a stay longer than a month and shorter than a year for reasons other than leisure/business/pilgrimage or treatment
Data Source: Short-Term International Migration Annual Report – Year ending mid-2014 estimates; Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Traveller Population
There were 125 caravans occupied by travellers in Havering as at January 2016. This number is a decrease on the last six-month count – previously, there was almost a steady increase over the past five counts (see Table 8). The decrease is mainly due to the removal of 35 caravans previously on unauthorised sites on land not owned by travellers (see Table 8 and Figure 33). About 78% of the traveller caravans in Havering were on unauthorised sites (though most of them were on travellers’ own land) and 22% were on authorised sites.
Table 8: Count of Traveller Caravans in Havering, last five counts, January 2014 to January 2016[29]
| Month/Year: | Jul
2014 |
Jan
2015 |
Jul
2015 |
Jan
2016 |
Jul 2016 | ||
| Authorised sites (with planning permission) | Socially Rented Caravans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Private Caravans | Temporary Planning Permission | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |
| Permanent Planning Permission | 13 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | ||
| All Private Caravans | 42 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | ||
| Unauthorised sites (without planning permission) | Caravans on Sites on Gypsies’ own land | “Tolerated” | 59 | 80 | 91 | 92 | 92 |
| “Not tolerated” | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | ||
| Caravans on Sites on land not owned by Gypsies | “Tolerated” | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| “Not tolerated” | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total (All Caravans) | 105 | 112 | 159 | 125 | 123 | ||
Data Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), May 2016; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 33: Distribution of traveller caravans in Havering, by type of site, January and July 2016
Data Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), July 2015; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Social Isolation
According to Census 2011, about 32% (13,449) of the population aged 65 years and above are living in one-person households. Almost half (48%) of all one person households in Havering are occupied by persons aged 65 years and over, which is the highest proportion in London[30]. Older people living alone can be an indicator of social isolation and may require more support from health and social care services.
Economic Profile
Income
Despite low deprivation scores and high employment rates, the average gross household income in Havering (£44,430), as measured in 2012/13, is low in comparison to the London average of £51,770 and slightly higher than the England average of £39,557. It is in the lowest third of all London boroughs (see Figure 34).
Figure 34: Total Average Annual Household Income in London Boroughs, 2012/13
Data source: Household Income Estimates, Greater London Authority (GLA) 2012/13; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Car Ownership
The number of cars and vans available to households in Havering was 117,634 in 2011.
77% of households in Havering have at least one car and compared to other local authorities in London, Havering has the second highest proportion of households (32.8%) with 2 or more cars (see Figure 35).
Figure 35: Car or van ownership amongst households across London boroughs, 2011
Data source: Census 2011; Office for National Statistics (ONS); Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Child Poverty
While the majority of children in Havering are not poor, around 8,800 children aged under 16 years live in poverty[31]. A recent proxy measure of child poverty, produced by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC)[32], is displayed by wards in Figure 36. In addition, local quintiles of income deprivation affecting children, as defined by the ‘Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index’ (2015), by LSOA are displayed in Figure 37. Gooshays and Heaton wards have the most children living in poverty.
Figure 36: Percentage of children in poverty by ward (before housing costs – BHC; and after housing costs – AHC), Oct-Dec 2013 estimates
Data Source: End Child Poverty Commission, 2015; London’s Poverty Profile using Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) measure; published October 2015; Produced by Public health Intelligence
Figure 37: Income deprivation affecting Children, quintiles within Havering LSOA, 2015
Data source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2015 (IMD, 2015); Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Employment and Unemployment
The overall employment rate in Havering is higher than the London and England averages. About 76.5% of working age residents in Havering were in employment, between Jan 2015 and December 2015, compared to 72.9% and 73.6% in London and England respectively (See Figure 38).
Conversely, the proportion of working age residents in Havering claiming out-of-work benefits (7.3%) is significantly lower than England (9.0%). This proportion is displayed for all London Boroughs in Figure 39 and in comparison with Havering’s ONS statistical comparator group in Figure 40.
Figure 38: Proportion of working age residents in employment by London Borough, January 2015 – December 2015
Data Source: Annual Population Survey (APS); Office for National Statistics (ONS) via NOMIS Office Labour Market Statistics; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 39: Proportion of working age residents claiming out-of-work benefits in London Boroughs as of November 2015
Data Source: Annual Population Survey (APS); Office for National Statistics (ONS) via NOMIS Office Labour Market Statistics; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Figure 40: Proportion of working age residents claiming out-of-work benefits in Havering and ONS statistical comparator group, as of November 2015
Data Source: Annual Population Survey (APS); Office for National Statistics (ONS) via NOMIS Office Labour Market Statistics; Produced by Public Health Intelligence
Notes
[1] Simply referred to as “Havering” throughout this document.
[2] Also see an accompanying PowerPoint document, which is a shortened version of this document and can be used for stakeholders’ PowerPoint-based presentations.
[3] Peer group means a group of similar local authorities based on multiple indicators (sometimes referred to as “statistical neighbours”) or one important factor (such as deprivation) when all local authorities in England are divided into groups (or deciles – meaning ten groups).
[4] The next version/update is due in March 2016.
[5] In September 2015, the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) published the English Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2015 (IMD 2015). This includes county and district summary measures, and a series of separate domains and other measures at the level of Lower Super Output Area (LSOA).
[6] The Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) published the English Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2010 (IMD 2010) in March 2011.
[7] Deprivation quintile: A ‘quintile’ basically represents 20% (or one-fifth) of a given population. Deprivation quintiles are derived when a population is ranked in order of deprivation and split into 5 groups – from the most deprived to the least deprived quintile.
[8] LSOA – Lower Layer Super Output Areas are a geographic hierarchy used by Office for National Statistics (ONS) to improve the reporting of small area statistics. They are built from groups of contiguous Output Areas and have been automatically generated to be as consistent in population size as possible, and typically contain from four to six Output Areas. The minimum population is 1000 and the mean is 1500.
[9] anyone who is resident and had stayed or intends to stay for a period of 12 months or more, OR has a permanent address and is outside the UK and intends to be outside the UK for less than 12 months.
[10] those coming to the United Kingdom (UK) for more than a year.
[11] Internal migration is calculated as the difference in total between those moving into and out of the borough from other local authorities in the United Kingdom.
[12] General Fertility Rate (GFR) is defined as the number of live births in a geographic area in a year per 1,000 women of childbearing age (defined as age 15 to 44 years)
[13] Internal migration flows for school children (July 2015) Greater London Authority using internal migration estimates mid-2009 to mid-2014 (June 2015) Office for National Statistics
[14] This models the population size for each age group based on trend data and strategic housing building plans (the assumption is that the proportion of people in each age group remains relatively stable over the next ten years). The tool is updated annually to reflect the latest ONS mid-year estimates.
[15] Life expectancy is a frequently used indicator of the overall health of a population: a longer life expectancy is generally a reflection of better health. Reducing the differences in life expectancy is a key part of reducing health inequalities. Life expectancy at birth for an area is an estimate of how long, on average, babies born today may live if she or he experienced that area’s age-specific mortality rates for that time period throughout her or his life.
[16] Deprivation decile: Population ranked in order of deprivation and split into 10 groups (from most to least deprived)
[17] Note that non-white population group excludes minority white ethnic groups
[18] Note that white population group includes minority white ethnic groups
[19] Since August 2010, the current working age measures have used those aged from 16 to 64 for both men and women (Office for National Statistics)
[20] Moderate physical disability: People with physical disability have an impairment which has a substantial and long term effect on their ability to carry our day-to-day activities. People with a moderate physical disability have mobility problems, e.g. unable to manage stairs, and need aids or assistance to walk.
[21] People with a severe or serious physical disability would be unable to walk and dependent on a carer for mobility; First Stop Advice for Older People
[22] People with mild/moderate learning disabilities will usually be able to live independently with support and those with severe learning disabilities need significant help with daily living; Valuing People: A New Strategy for Learning Disability for the 21st Century Department of Health
[23] The usually resident population includes people who reside in the area for a period of at least 12 months whatever their nationality
[24] See next footnote for aggregation method
[25] Category here: Categories in Census 2011 data (KS105EW)
One Adult Households: No children under 16 (Pensionable age): One Person Household; Aged 65 and Over
One Adult Households: No children under 16 (Under Pensionable age): One Person Household; Other AND One Family Only; Lone Parent; All Children Non-Dependent
One Adult Households: With children under 16: One Family Only; Lone Parent; Dependent Children
Two or more Adult Households: No Children Under 16: One Family Only; All Aged 65 and Over AND One Family Only; Married or Same-Sex Civil Partnership Couple; No Children AND One Family Only; Married or Same-Sex Civil Partnership Couple; All Children Non-Dependent AND One Family Only; Cohabiting Couple; No Children AND One Family Only; Cohabiting Couple; All Children Non-Dependent AND Other Household Types; All Full-Time Students AND Other Household Types; All Aged 65 and Over AND Other Household Types; Other
Two or more Adult Households: With Children Under 16: One Family Only; Married or Same-Sex Civil Partnership Couple; Dependent Children AND One Family Only; Cohabiting Couple; Dependent Children AND Other Household Types; With Dependent Children
[26] Number of homeless households in temporary accommodation awaiting a settled home.
[27] For a household to be classified as statutorily homeless, the following must be satisfied:
- They are homeless, defined as those without any right to access secure accommodation for that night i.e. they are not legal tenants of any property, nor own any property. Or they can also be classed as “potentially homeless” if they are about to lose their dwelling, be evicted, within 28 days.
- They must have a local connection (lived or worked in the area, family in the area, have a care responsibility or need care from relatives in the area).
- They are in priority need i.e. have dependent children in them (aged under 16 years) or are an older person household, or vulnerable.
- The homeless household must not be intentionally homeless i.e. losing their previous accommodation through their own action such as not paying rent or a mortgage. (Department of Communities and Local Government)
[28] A type of quintile, but values are split into 4 groups (from lowest to highest values).
[29] A ‘tolerated’ site is one where the local authority has decided not to seek the removal of the encampment, and where the encampment has been, or is likely to be, allowed to remain for an indefinite period of months or years
[30] Census 2011 (Household Composition by Age), Office for National Statistics (ONS)
[31] Source: Havering Health Profile 2015 (online at: http://www.apho.org.uk/default.aspx?QN=HP_METADATA&AreaID=50279)
[32] It measures the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of-work benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60 per cent median income.